Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Stop Andy Burnham' Effort to Block Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This move follows the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an impending by-election.

Significant Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have apparently predicted it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the significant number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are anxious to avoid any future leadership challenge.

The party apparatus reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with officials and MPs raising concerns about the substantial expense and electoral danger of a resulting election for mayor in Greater Manchester.

The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Last year, he prompted outrage within No 10 and among cabinet ministers when he stated that many MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.

There has long been speculation that he is seeking a return to parliament to possibly stand for the Labour leadership should a contest to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against exaggerating the level of any scheming, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return Westminster if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Current Climate and Public Approval

Amid opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the only prominent Labour personality with favourable ratings with the public.

Should Mr. Burnham choose to stand, multiple hurdles remain. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the chances are stacked against him—and then win the by-election against challenges from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.

Efforts to Block Burnham

Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" campaign is already under way, with the party's organisation being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister himself said that the by-election procedure was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's departure was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

Figures on the committee have allegedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a mayoral byelection in Greater Manchester. This could divert around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.

A number of insiders also expressed fears about Reform UK attempting to win the mayoralty left by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.

Union Influence and Democratic Concerns

Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to stand. It is also possible the committee could impose an all-female shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

However, one Burnham ally counselled against assuming the NEC would simply reject him, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.

The unions hold a sizable proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently keeping their counsel, insiders suggested they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.

The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

By-election Battle

The constituency in question has a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to launch a strong campaign, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could face some pressure from pro-Gaza independents.

Should Mr. Burnham return to parliament, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a leadership challenge, a requirement that is not guaranteed given he is regarded with caution by some on the parliamentary party.

The departing MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a standards inquiry related to his membership in an offensive online group.