Moving from Reluctant Admiration to Disquiet: Russia Weighs Up the Ousting of Maduro.

A surprise raid on the capital under cover of darkness, ending with the capture of the country's president. By the next morning, the intervening power announces its plan to rule indefinitely.

That is precisely how Russia's president imagined his large-scale offensive of Ukraine playing out in early 2022. In reality, it was Donald Trump who executed it in Venezuela, in a move widely condemned by many, whisking away the Kremlin's historic ally Nicolás Maduro, who is set to be tried in New York.

Official Outrage and Private Thoughts

Officially, Russian officials have reacted with anger, denouncing the operation as a blatant breach of global norms and a dangerous precedent. But behind the rhetoric, there is a feeling of reluctant admiration – and even envy – at the efficiency of a coup that Moscow itself once planned, but could not carry out due to a series of intelligence blunders and stiff Ukrainian opposition.

“The operation was carried out with precision,” noted the Kremlin-aligned online channel Dva Mayora. “In all probability, this is precisely the way our 'special military operation' was meant to unfold: swift, dramatic and decisive. It’s difficult to imagine [Valery] Gerasimov expected to be engaged in combat for four years.”

These observations have fed a mood of soul-searching among hardline commentators, with some openly questioning how Moscow's anticipated lightning war in Ukraine morphed into a long and bloody war.

Olga Uskova, said she felt “embarrassment” on behalf of her country given how brazen the US intervention appeared to be. “In the space of a day, the US detained Venezuela's leader and seemingly wrapped up his own 'military mission,’” she wrote.

Allies in Decline

For more than two decades, Venezuela worked to build a network of anti-American allies – from Moscow and Beijing to Havana and Tehran – in the hope of forging a alternative bloc capable of standing up to Washington.

However, even with Russia's foreign minister vowing backing for Maduro's regime just in late December, hardly any experts ever expected Moscow would come to his rescue.

Mired in Ukraine, Russia has, recently, watched other key allies lose influence or weaken sharply – from Bashar al-Assad to an increasingly weakened Iran – exposing the constraints of the Kremlin's global influence.

“For Russia, the circumstances are deeply uncomfortable,” said a foreign policy analyst. “Venezuela is a key ally and ideological ally, and Maduro and Putin have longstanding ties, leaving Moscow with no option but to express outrage. Yet providing any real assistance to a country so far away is simply not feasible – for practical and operational reasons.”

The Ukraine Priority

There is also a more practical calculation. The Kremlin's main focus, experts note, is Ukraine – and maintaining a productive dialogue with Trump on that front greatly exceeds the destiny of Caracas.

“The Russian and American leaders are currently focused on a much more significant issue for Moscow: Ukraine. And for all the Kremlin's goodwill towards Caracas, it is unlikely to upend a much larger strategic game with a vital counterpart over what it sees as a lesser priority,” the analyst concluded.

Tangible Costs and New Threats

Nevertheless, Russia's diminished role in Venezuela carries multiple concrete consequences for Moscow. If a US-friendly government were to emerge in Caracas, American military specialists could gain access to large parts of the Venezuelan armed forces' arsenal, including advanced Russian-made systems.

This arsenal encompasses S-300VM anti-aircraft systems sent over a decade ago, as well as an undisclosed number of Pantsir and Buk-M2 systems transferred in late 2025.

Moscow has also extended billions of dollars to Venezuela, much of which it is now unlikely ever to be recovered.

A more pressing concern for Moscow, however, is oil: American control over Venezuela's vast reserves could depress international oil prices, endangering one of Russia's most important sources of income.

“If our American 'partners' gain access to Venezuela’s oilfields, over 50% of the world’s oil reserves will end up under their control,” wrote a prominent Russian billionaire. “And it appears their strategy is to ensure that the price of our oil does not rise above $50 a barrel.”

A Bleak Silver Lining?

Yet, some in Moscow perceive a bleak kind of optimism. Trump's kidnapping of Maduro, they argue, could deal a final blow to the rules-based international order and pave the way for a more openly 19th-century-style world – one where power, rather than rules, shapes outcomes.

“The US administration is ruthless and pragmatic in advancing its country's interests,” wrote Russia's former president with endorsement. “Removing Maduro had no connection to drugs – only oil, and they freely acknowledge it. The law of the strongest is clearly more powerful than international law.”