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Against the backdrop of the widespread uncertainty following the American military actions on Venezuela, the apprehension of leader Nicolás Maduro, and statements from Trump that the US will “control” the country and “take back the oil”, there is no doubt – these actions create a deeply alarming precedent.

A Dark Legacy and an Unprecedented Move

The United States possesses a dark record of interference, invasion and occupation in Latin America, but the early hours of Saturday saw its initial significant armed assault on South American land. “The preeminence of America in this region is now beyond dispute,” the President stated.

The decision to unilaterally attack another sovereign country and abduct its leader – just a short time after he stated a desire for negotiations – possesses far-reaching consequences. We all have reason to be worried.

Deep Instability for a Nation in Crisis

Venezuelans have lived through a dictatorship marked by theft and failure under Mr Maduro, widely believed to have fraudulently won the most recent election. They now face a future of deep insecurity. Mr Trump has suggested that Mr Maduro’s deputy, Delcy Rodríguez would follow US instructions, and rejected prominent critic and Nobel prize-winner María Corina Machado as a credible successor.

However, Ms Rodríguez, now the temporary head of state, has so far adopted a posture of resistance – and other parts of the decapitated regime are far more intransigent.

From Global Policeman to International Outlaw

A man who came to office promising to abandon foreign wars now says he is “willing to put soldiers into combat”. Rebranding the Department of Defense as the Department of War was a substantive signal. He fails to perceive the world’s superpower as a global policeman; he is turning it into a rogue state.

He believes that the US’s might permits it to do as it wishes with scant penalty: consider the strikes on Nigeria, on Iran’s nuclear facilities. He promises that the oil resources of Venezuela means this most recent venture “will pay for itself”.

An Illegal Assault on Sovereignty

George W. Bush initiated war in Iraq on a lie. But this illegal attack came without UN resolutions of any kind or the consent of the US Congress; Democrats were not even informed and say they were actively misled in briefings. Mr Trump is not trying to twist international norms, but to obliterate them.

Disregard the signal this transmits to global powers like Russia and China, and ask where the US itself is heading. While the raid allegedly resulted in the deaths of 40 Venezuelans, including civilians, not a single US soldier was lost. Mr Trump’s increasing belief in his impunity will surely embolden more reckless actions.

Flimsy Justifications and Underlying Drivers

No one buys the pretext that this is concerning narcotics. Venezuela is only a secondary pathway for cocaine; Mr Trump recently pardoned the former Honduran president Juan Orlando Hernández for drugs and weapons crimes. Mr Trump himself has stated plainly that he is driven by the allure of petroleum resources as well as machismo, the ideology of some in his administration, and the appetite for triumphalism as domestic popularity wanes.

World Leaders' Silence and a Weakened UN

The international response, especially in Europe, has – with honourable exceptions – been surprisingly subdued. That’s not because of Mr Maduro’s sins, but fear of Mr Trump’s wrath. The firm response from UN Secretary General António Guterres was notable, but this episode highlights the UN's diminishing clout.

Mr Trump’s anti-interventionist domestic base could still pressure him to focus on domestic issues once more – but soaring healthcare premiums, economic unhappiness and other domestic scandals fuel his desire for external drama.

Barely 12 months into his presidential term. World leaders may regret it if they fail to speak up today, with the question of which nation is next looming.